A ranar 23 ga Maris, babban jirgin ruwa mai suna "Changci" da Taiwan Evergreen Shipping ke sarrafawa, lokacin da yake wucewa ta mashigin Suez, ana zargin ya kauce daga tashar kuma ya yi kasa a gwiwa sakamakon iska mai karfi.A 4: 30 na safe a ranar 29th, lokacin gida, tare da ƙoƙarin ƙungiyar ceto, mai ɗaukar kaya "Long Give" wanda ya toshe Canal Suez ya sake farfadowa, kuma injin yanzu yana kunna!An ba da rahoton cewa an daidaita jirgin mai "Changci".Majiyoyin jigilar kayayyaki guda biyu sun ce jirgin ya koma “hanyar yau da kullun.”An bayar da rahoton cewa, tawagar ceto ta yi nasarar ceto tashar "Long give" a cikin mashigin ruwa na Suez Canal, amma har yanzu ba a san lokacin da mashigin Suez zai ci gaba da zirga-zirga ba.

A matsayin daya daga cikin muhimman tashoshi na jigilar kayayyaki a duniya, toshewar mashigin Suez Canal ya kara sabbin damuwa ga karfin jigilar kwantena na duniya da aka rigaya ya yi.Ba wanda zai yi tunanin cewa an dakatar da kasuwancin duniya a cikin 'yan kwanakin nan a cikin wani kogi mai fadin mita 200?Da zaran wannan ya faru, dole ne mu sake yin tunani game da aminci da batutuwan da ba a cika su ba na tashar kasuwancin Sino-Turai na yanzu don samar da "wajibi" don sufuri na Suez Canal.

1. Lamarin "cunkoson jirgin ruwa", "fuka-fukan malam buɗe ido" ya girgiza tattalin arzikin duniya

Lars Jensen, babban jami'in kamfanin tuntubar "Maritime Intelligence" na Danish, ya ce kimanin jiragen ruwa masu nauyi 30 ne ke bi ta mashigar ruwa ta Suez a kowace rana, kuma wata rana da aka toshewa, yana nufin an jinkirta jigilar kwantena 55,000.Dangane da lissafin Lloyd's List, farashin sa'o'i na toshewar Canal na Suez ya kai kusan dalar Amurka miliyan 400.Katafaren kamfanin inshora na Jamus Allianz Group ya yi kiyasin cewa toshe mashigin ruwa na Suez zai iya janyo asarar dalar Amurka biliyan 6 zuwa dalar Amurka biliyan 10 a duk mako.

Masanin tsare-tsare na JPMorgan Chase Marko Kolanovic ya rubuta a cikin wani rahoto a ranar Alhamis cewa: “Ko da yake mun yi imani kuma muna fatan za a warware matsalar nan ba da jimawa ba, har yanzu akwai wasu haɗari.A cikin matsanancin yanayi, za a toshe canal na dogon lokaci.Wannan na iya haifar da tarnaki mai tsanani a harkokin kasuwancin duniya, da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, da karuwar kayayyakin makamashi, da hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a duniya."A lokaci guda kuma, jinkirin jigilar kayayyaki zai kuma haifar da da'awar inshora mai yawa, wanda zai sanya matsin lamba kan cibiyoyin hada-hadar kudi da ke shiga cikin inshorar ruwa, ko kuma zai haifar da Reinsurance da sauran fannonin suna da rudani.

Sakamakon babban dogaro da tashar jigilar kayayyaki ta Suez Canal, kasuwar Turai ta ji a fili rashin jin daɗi sakamakon toshewar dabaru, kuma masana'antar dillalai da masana'antu za su kasance "babu shinkafa a cikin tukunya."Kamfanin dillancin labarai na Xinhua na kasar Sin ya bayar da rahoton cewa, babban dillalin kayayyakin gida na duniya, IKEA na kasar Sweden, ya tabbatar da cewa, an dauki kimanin kwantena 110 na kamfanin a kan "Changci".Dixons Mobile dillalan wutar lantarki na Biritaniya da Kamfanin Brocker na sayar da kayan gida su ma sun tabbatar da cewa an jinkirta isar da kayayyaki saboda toshewar magudanar ruwa.

Haka yake ga masana'antu.Hukumar kima ta kasa da kasa Moody's ta yi nazari kan cewa, saboda masana'antun masana'antu na Turai, musamman masu samar da kayan aikin mota, sun kasance suna bin "sarrafa kayan aiki na lokaci-lokaci" don haɓaka ingancin babban jari kuma ba za su tara yawan albarkatun ƙasa ba.A wannan yanayin, da zarar an toshe kayan aiki, ana iya katse samarwa.

Har ila yau toshewar yana kawo cikas ga kwararar LNG a duniya.Hukumar “Kasuwa” ta Amurka ta bayyana cewa, farashin iskar gas ya yi tashin gwauron zabi saboda cunkoso.Kashi 8% na iskar gas a duniya ana jigilar su ta hanyar Suez Canal.Qatar, babbar mai samar da iskar gas a duniya, tana da kayayyakin iskar gas da ake jigilar su zuwa Turai ta magudanar ruwa.Idan aka jinkirta kewayawa, kusan tan miliyan 1 na iskar iskar gas na iya jinkirta zuwa Turai.

Bugu da kari, wasu mahalarta kasuwar sun nuna damuwa cewa farashin danyen mai na kasa da kasa da sauran kayayyaki zai yi tashin gwauron zabo sakamakon toshewar mashigin Suez.A cikin 'yan kwanakin nan, farashin mai a duniya ya tashi sosai.Farashin danyen mai mai sauki da aka bayar a watan Mayu a kasuwar New York Mercantile Exchange da London Brent da aka kawo a watan Mayu duk sun haura dala 60 kan kowace ganga.Sai dai masu lura da masana’antu sun bayyana cewa, kasuwar ta damu matuka, ganin yadda yanayin samar da kayayyaki ya karu, lamarin da ya sa farashin mai ya tashi.Sai dai kuma, a matsayin martani ga sabon zagaye na annobar, tsaurara matakan rigakafi da shawo kan cutar za ta dakile bukatar danyen mai.Bugu da kari, hanyoyin sufuri na kasashen da ke hako mai irin su Amurka ba su yi tasiri ba.Sakamakon haka, sararin samaniyar farashin mai na duniya yana da iyaka.

2. Kara tsananta matsalar “kwandon yana da wuyar samu”

Tun daga rabin na biyu na shekarar da ta gabata, bukatun jigilar kayayyaki a duniya ya karu sosai, kuma tashoshi da dama sun fuskanci matsaloli kamar matsalar samun kwantena da yawan jigilar kayayyaki a teku.Mahalarta kasuwar sun yi imanin cewa, idan aka ci gaba da toshe mashigin ruwa na Suez, toshewar jiragen dakon kaya da yawa ba za su iya jujjuya ba, wanda hakan zai kara tsadar cinikayyar duniya tare da haifar da sarkakiya.

Bisa kididdigar da hukumar kwastam ta kasar Sin ta fitar kwanaki kadan da suka gabata, yawan kayayyakin da kasar Sin ke fitarwa zuwa kasashen waje a cikin watanni biyun farko na bana ya sake karuwa sosai da fiye da kashi 50%.A matsayin mafi mahimmancin yanayin sufuri a cikin dabaru na kasa da kasa, sama da kashi 90% na shigo da kaya da fitar da kayayyaki ana kammala su ta teku.Sabili da haka, fitar da kayayyaki sun sami "farawa mai kyau", wanda ke nufin babban buƙatun iya aikawa.

Kamfanin dillancin labaran iqna ya habarta cewa, ya nakalto daga shafin sadarwa na yanar gizo na Bloomberg cewa, a kwanan baya kanfanin dillacin labaran tauraron dan adam na kasar Rasha ya nakalto daga kasar China zuwa nahiyar turai cewa farashin wani kwantena mai tsawon kafa 40 ya tashi zuwa kusan dalar Amurka 8,000 kwatankwacin RMB 52,328, sakamakon makalewar jirgin wanda ya ninka kusan sau uku fiye da diyar. shekara da ta wuce.

Sampmax Construction ya yi hasashen cewa haɓakar farashin kayayyaki a halin yanzu ta hanyar Suez Canal ya fi yawa saboda tsammanin kasuwa na hauhawar farashin sufuri da kuma tsammanin hauhawar farashi.Toshewar mashigar ruwa ta Suez zai kara dagula matsatsin wadatar kwantena.Sakamakon karuwar bukatar jiragen dakon kaya da ke dauke da kwantena a duniya, hatta manyan dillalai sun fara gazawa wajen bukata.Tare da farfadowar sarkar samar da kayayyaki ta duniya tana fuskantar ƙulla, ana iya kwatanta wannan a matsayin "ƙara mai ga wuta."Baya ga kwantena da ke ɗauke da ɗimbin kayayyakin masarufi da ake “makowa” a cikin Canal na Suez, an kuma toshe kwantena da yawa a wurin.Lokacin da sassan samar da kayayyaki na duniya ke bukatar murmurewa cikin gaggawa, an tanadi manyan kwantena masu yawa a tashoshin jiragen ruwa na Turai da Amurka, wanda ka iya kara tsananta karancin kwantena kuma a lokaci guda ya kawo babban kalubale ga karfin jigilar kayayyaki.

3. Shawarwarinmu

A halin yanzu, hanyar Sampmax Construction don magance matsalar da ke da wuyar ganowa ita ce ba da shawarar abokan ciniki don ƙarin haja, kuma su zaɓi jigilar NOR mai ƙafa 40 ko jigilar kaya, wanda zai iya rage tsada sosai, amma wannan hanyar tana buƙatar abokan ciniki su ƙara haja.