Menyesha!"Stagflation" mu bucuruzi mpuzamahanga irashobora guhagarika
No.1┃ Ibiciro byibikoresho byasaze
Kuva mu 2021, ibicuruzwa "byazamutse".Mu gihembwe cya mbere, ibicuruzwa 189 byose byazamutse kandi bigwa ku rutonde rwibiciro byibicuruzwa.Muri byo, ibicuruzwa 79 byiyongereyeho hejuru ya 20%, ibicuruzwa 11 byiyongereyeho hejuru ya 50%, naho ibicuruzwa 2 byiyongera hejuru ya 100%, birimo ingufu, imiti, ibyuma bidafite fer, ibyuma, reberi na plastiki n’ibicuruzwa by’ubuhinzi na indi mirima.
Kuzamuka kw'ibiciro by'ibicuruzwa byazamuye mu buryo butaziguye igiciro cyo kugura ibicuruzwa fatizo.Muri Werurwe, igiciro cyibiciro byibikoresho byingenzi byegereye 67%, kikaba cyari hejuru ya 60.0% mumezi ane yikurikiranya kandi kikaba cyarageze kumyaka ine.Ibiti byo kubaka nabyo byiyongereyeho 15% kugeza kuri 20%, ibyo bikaba bigaragara mubitutu byibiciro.
Bitewe n’icyorezo gishya cy’ikamba, ubukungu bukomeye ku isi bwashyize mu bikorwa politiki nini yo korohereza amafaranga.Kugeza mu mpera za Gashyantare 2021, M2 itanga amafaranga menshi muri banki nkuru nkuru nkuru z’Amerika, Uburayi n'Ubuyapani yarenze miliyoni 47 z'amadolari y'Amerika.Muri uyu mwaka, Leta zunze ubumwe z’Amerika zashyizeho gahunda yo gutera inkunga ingana na tiriyari 1.9 z'amadolari ya Amerika hamwe na gahunda nini y'ibikorwa remezo ingana na tiriyari imwe y'amadorari y'Amerika.Kugeza ku ya 1 Werurwe, amafaranga M2 muri Amerika yageze kuri tiriyari 19.7 z'amadolari y'Amerika, umwaka ushize wiyongereyeho 27%.Gukomeza kwinjiza ibicuruzwa ku isoko bizamura mu buryo butaziguye ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa byinshi, kandi icyorezo cyagabanije umusaruro ku isi, kandi ibicuruzwa bimwe na bimwe birabura, ibyo bikaba byazamuye izamuka ry’ibiciro.
Igishushanyo 1: M2 itanga amafaranga ya banki nkuru nkuru eshatu kwisi
Igishushanyo 2: US M2 itanga amafaranga
No.2┃Inganda zubaka zisabwa cyangwa kugabanuka cyane
Mu guhangana n’izamuka ry’ibiciro fatizo, Ubwubatsi bwa Sampmax bwagombaga kuzamura ibiciro "ku isoko".Ariko sensitivite ikabije yabaguzi bo mumahanga kwiyongera kubiciro ishyira ibigo mubibazo.Ku ruhande rumwe, nta nyungu zizabaho niba nta kuzamuka kw'ibiciro.Ku rundi ruhande, bahangayikishijwe no gutakaza ibicuruzwa nyuma yo kuzamuka kw'ibiciro.
Urebye kuri macro, politiki y’ifaranga rirenze urugero biragoye kubyutsa ibyifuzo bishya, ariko birashobora gutuma ifaranga ridahinduka hamwe ninguzanyo zikabije.Umukino w’imigabane mpuzamahanga y’ubucuruzi urengerwa no kongera buhoro buhoro ubushobozi bw’umusaruro ukomoka mu mahanga, kandi ingaruka zo gusimburwa ziragabanuka, ku buryo bigoye ko mu mahanga bikomeza kugira urwego rwo hejuru.
No.3┃Impungenge zihishe za "stagflation" mubucuruzi mpuzamahanga
Stagflation ikoreshwa kenshi mugusobanura kubana kwiterambere ryubukungu bwifashe nabi nifaranga.Ugereranije ibi n’ubucuruzi mpuzamahanga, amasosiyete y’ubucuruzi y’ububanyi n’amahanga ahatirwa "kubigiramo uruhare" atabishaka mugihe igiciro cyibikoresho fatizo n’ibindi biciro byazamutse cyane, mu gihe icyifuzo cyo hanze kitigeze cyiyongera cyane cyangwa ngo kigabanuke.
Icyorezo cyo mu kinyejana cyateje icyuho cyiyongera hagati y'abakire n'abakene ku isi, umubare w'ibyiciro byinjiza amafaranga make wariyongereye, ingano y'icyiciro cyo hagati iragabanuka, kandi inzira yo kugabanuka iragaragara.Ibi byazanye impinduka mumiterere yisoko ryoherezwa hanze, ni ukuvuga ko isoko ryo hagati ryagabanutse kandi isoko ryo hasi ryazamutse.
Kuvuguruzanya hagati y’ibiciro by’ifaranga n’ibisabwa ku ruhande byahagaritse ibyoherezwa mu mahanga.Hamwe no kugabanuka kwikoreshwa ryamahanga, isoko ryanyuma ryumva cyane ibiciro byoherezwa hanze.Ubwiyongere bukabije bw’ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu nganda nyinshi biragoye guha abaguzi n’abaguzi b’amahanga mu kuzamura ibiciro byoherezwa mu mahanga.
Mu yandi magambo, ubucuruzi muri rusange buracyiyongera, ariko imibare igenda itera imbere ntabwo yazanye inyungu nyinshi mu bigo byacu, cyangwa ngo ibashe gukora ibisabwa bikomeza."Stagflation" iraza ituje.
No.4┃ Inzitizi n'ibisubizo mu gufata ibyemezo by'ubucuruzi
Stagflation ntabwo ituzanira kugabanya inyungu gusa, ahubwo izana ibibazo ningaruka mubyemezo byubucuruzi.
Kugirango ufunge ibiciro, abaguzi benshi kandi benshi mumahanga bakunda gusinyana natwe amasezerano maremare natwe cyangwa bagashyiraho ibicuruzwa byinshi nibicuruzwa binini icyarimwe.Imbere y "ibirayi bishyushye", Ubwubatsi bwa Sampmax bwongeye kuba mu gihirahiro: buhangayikishijwe no kubura amahirwe y’ubucuruzi, kandi binatinya ko igiciro cy’ibikoresho fatizo kizakomeza kuzamuka nyuma yo kubona iryo tegeko, bikazana gutsindwa gukora cyangwa gutakaza amafaranga, cyane cyane kubakiriya bafite ibicuruzwa bito.Ibikoresho fatizo byikipe yacu biri hejuru.Imbaraga zo guterana amagambo zigarukira.
Byongeye kandi, ukurikije ibiciro biriho muri rusange murwego rwo hejuru ugereranije, Ubwubatsi bwa Sampmax bwiteguye guhangana nihindagurika ryibiciro.Cyane cyane ku isoko hamwe n’imihindagurikire y’ibiciro by’urugomo, tuzagenzura byimazeyo uburyo bwo gukusanya.Mugihe kimwe, birasabwa ko abakiriya bafite ibyangombwa bisabwa kugirango bafate ibyemezo byihuse.
Urebye ko abakiriya ba Sampmax bagenzura ibarura n’ibicuruzwa mu gihe cyagenwe mu gihe cyihariye, birasabwa ko abaguzi bacu bakurikiranira hafi uko ibintu byishyuwe, bagakurikiza igitekerezo cy’umutekano, bagakora bitonze agaciro gakomeye kandi birebire. -ubucuruzi bwubucuruzi, kandi ube maso cyane kubaguzi benshi, ibyago byo hagati.Tuzaganira kandi nawe gahunda yubufatanye burambye.