Alert!"Stagflation" mukutengeserana kwenyika dzakawanda inogona kurova
No.1┃ Crazy mbishi zvinhu mitengo
Kubva 2021, zvigadzirwa "zvasimuka".Muchikamu chekutanga, huwandu hwezvigadzirwa zve189 zvakasimuka uye zvakadonha mumutengo wemitengo.Pakati pavo, 79 commodities yakawedzera neinodarika 20%, 11 commodities yakawedzera neinodarika 50%, uye 2 commodities yakawedzera neinopfuura 100%, zvinosanganisira simba, makemikari, non-ferrous simbi, simbi, rabha nemapurasitiki uye zvigadzirwa zvekurima uye dzimwe minda.
Kukwira kwemitengo yezvigadzirwa kwakanangana nekukwidza mutengo wekutenga wezvigadzirwa zvemhando.Muna March, indekisi yemutengo wekutenga yezvinhu zvakakura zvakasvibirira yakasvika 67%, iyo yave yakakwirira kudarika 60.0% kwemwedzi mina yakatevedzana uye yakarova makore mana.Matanda ekuvaka aonawo kuwedzera kwe15% kusvika 20%, izvo zvinoonekwa mukumanikidzwa kwemutengo.
Zvichipesana nekumashure kwedenda idzva rekorona, hupfumi hukuru hwepasirese hwakaisa mitemo yakakura yekurerutsa mari.Kubva pakupera kwaKukadzi 2021, iyo M2 yakakura mari yekupihwa kwemabhanga makuru matatu muUnited States, Europe neJapan yakapfuura US$47 trillion.Gore rino, United States yakaunza pasuru yekusimudzira yeUS$1.9 trillion uye hurongwa hukuru hwezvivakwa hunodarika US$1 trillion.Kubva munaKurume 1, huwandu hweM2 muUnited States hwakasvika US $ 19.7 trillion, kuwedzera kwegore negore kwe27%.Kuenderera mberi kwejekiseni rekushomeka kwemari mumusika kunokwidza mitengo yezvinhu zvakawanda, uye denda rakaderedza kugadzirwa kwepasi rose, uye zvimwe zvinhu zviri kushomeka, izvo zvawedzera kuwedzera kwemitengo.
Mufananidzo 1: M2 mari inopihwa yemabhangi makuru matatu epasirese
Mufananidzo 2: US M2 mari inopa
No.2┃Kuda kweindasitiri yekuvaka kana kuderera kwakanyanya
Yakatarisana nekukwira kwemitengo yezvinhu, Sampmax Construction yaifanira kuwedzera mitengo "pamusika".Asi kunzwisiswa kwakanyanya kwevatengi vekunze kukwira kwemitengo kunoisa makambani mudambudziko.Kune rumwe rutivi, hapazovi nemiganhu yepurofiti kana pasina kuwedzera kwemutengo.Kune rumwe rutivi, vanonetseka pamusoro pekurasikirwa kwemirairo mushure mekuwedzera kwemutengo.
Kubva pamaonero makuru, yakawandisa yakasununguka mutemo wemari inonetsa kukurudzira kudiwa kutsva, asi zvinogona kutungamira mukukwira kwemitengo uye kuwanda kwechikwereti.Mutambo wekutengeserana kwenyika dzepasi rose wakaiswa pamusoro pekudzoreredza zvishoma nezvishoma kwesimba rekugadzira mhiri kwemakungwa, uye mhedzisiro yekutsiva iri kudzikira, zvichiita kuti zviome kudiwa kwemhiri kwemakungwa kuchengetedza mazinga akakwirira.
Kwete.3┃Kunetseka kwakavanzika kwe "stagflation" mukutengeserana kwenyika dzakawanda
Stagflation inowanzo shandiswa kutsanangura kugarisana kwekusimudzira hupfumi hwenyika uye inflation.Kuenzanisa izvi nekutengeserana kwenyika dzakawanda, makambani ekutengeserana kune dzimwe nyika anomanikidzwa "kubatanidzwa" nekuzengurira apo mutengo wezvigadzirwa nemimwe mari yakakwira zvakanyanya, asi kudiwa kwekunze hakuna kuwedzera zvakanyanya kana kutoderera.
Denda rezana rino ramakore rakakonzera mukaha unowedzera pakati pevapfumi nevarombo pasi rose, nhamba yezvidzidzo zvevashoma yakwira, ukuru hweboka repakati hwaderera, uye muitiro wokuderera kwezvinodiwa uri pachena.Izvi zvakaunza shanduko mukugadzirwa kwemusika wekutengesa kunze, ndiko kuti, misika yepakati yakadonha uye misika yakaderera yakasimuka.
Kupokana pakati pekupa-side inflation uye kuda-side deflation kwakadzvanyirira kunze kwenyika.Nekudzikisira kwekushandiswa kwekunze, musika wekupedzisira unonetseka zvakanyanya nemitengo yekunze.Kukwira kuri kuita mitengo yezvinhu kunze kwenyika kwemaindasitiri mazhinji kunonetsa kupfuudza kune vatengi nevatengi vekunze kuburikidza nekukwidza mitengo yekunze.
Mune mamwe mazwi, huwandu hwekutengeserana huri kuramba huchikwira, asi huwandu huri kuwedzera hauna kuunza purofiti yakawanda kumabhizinesi edu, uye havana kukwanisa kuumba zvinoramba zvichidiwa."Stagflation" iri kuuya chinyararire.
No.4┃ Zvinetso uye Mhinduro kuTrade Decision-making
Stagflation inounza isu kwete chete kudzikiswa kwepurofiti, asiwo matambudziko uye njodzi mukutengesa sarudzo.
Kuti uvhare mitengo, vatengi vakawanda vekumhiri kwemakungwa vanowanzosaina zvibvumirano zvenguva refu nesu kana kuisa maodha akawanda uye maodha makuru kamwechete.Pamberi pe "mbatatisi inopisa", Sampmax Kuvaka iri mudambudziko zvakare: iri kushushikana nekushayikwa kwemikana yebhizinesi, uye zvakare inotya kuti mutengo wezvigadzirwa ucharamba uchikwira mushure mekugamuchira kurongeka, izvo zvinozotungamira mukukundikana. kuita kana kurasikirwa nemari, kunyanya kune vatengi vane madiki madiki.Zvigadzirwa zvechikwata chedu zviri kumusoro.Kukurukurirana simba kune zvishoma.
Uye zvakare, zvichibva pamitengo iripo kazhinji iri padanho repamusoro, Sampmax Kuvaka yakagadzirira kubata nekudonha kwemitengo.Kunyanya mumusika nechisimba chekuchinja kwemitengo, isu tichanyatso kudzora mamiriro ekuunganidza.Panguva imwecheteyo, zvinokurudzirwa kuti vatengi vane zvinodiwa zvekurongeka kuita sarudzo nekukurumidza.
Tichifunga nezve chokwadi chekuti vatengi veSampmax vanotarisisa zvinhu uye kutengesa panguva yakakodzera panguva yakakosha, zvinokurudzirwa kuti vatengi vedu vanyatsotevera mamiriro ekubhadhara, vatevedzere pfungwa yekuchengetedza, kunyatsoita hukuru-kukosha uye kureba. -temu bhizinesi, uye svinurira zvakanyanya kune vatengi vakakura, Dambudziko repakati.Tichakurukurawo newe chirongwa chekushandira pamwe kwenguva refu.