Ngomhla wama-23 kuMatshi, inqanawe enkulu ebizwa ngokuba yi-“Changci” eyayisetyenziswa yiTaiwan Evergreen Shipping, xa idlula kwiSuez Canal, kwakurhaneleka ukuba iye yaphambuka kumjelo yaza yabaleka yangqubeka ngenxa yomoya onamandla.Nge-4: 30 ekuseni ngomhla we-29, ixesha lendawo, kunye nemigudu yeqela lokuhlangula, umkhumbi othi "Long Give" owawuvalele i-Suez Canal uphinde wavuka, kwaye injini ngoku iyasebenza!Kuvakala ukuba inqwelo mafutha “Changci” ilungisiwe.Imithombo emibini yokuthumela ngenqanawa yathi umthuthi uqalise kwakhona "indlela yesiqhelo."Kuxelwa ukuba iqela lokuhlangula liye lahlangula ngempumelelo i-"Long Give" kwi-Suez Canal, kodwa ixesha lokuba i-Suez Canal iphinde iqalise ukuhamba ayikaziwa.

Njengenye yeendlela zokuhambisa ezibaluleke kakhulu kwihlabathi, ukuvaleka kweSuez Canal yongeze amaxhala amatsha kumthamo wenqanawa osele uqinile wehlabathi.Akukho mntu wayenokucinga ukuba urhwebo lwehlabathi jikelele kwiintsuku zamva nje lunqunyanyisiwe kumlambo obanzi weemitha ezingama-200?Ngokukhawuleza ukuba oku kwenzeka, kwafuneka siphinde sicinge malunga nokhuseleko kunye nemiba engabonakaliyo yesitishi sorhwebo samanje se-Sino-European ukubonelela "i-backup" yezothutho ze-Suez Canal.

1. Isiganeko “sokuxinana kweenqanawa,” “amaphiko ebhabhathane” agungqisa uqoqosho lwehlabathi

U-Lars Jensen, i-CEO ye-Danish "Maritime Intelligence" inkampani yokubonisana, uthe malunga neenqanawa ze-30 zemithwalo ezinzima zidlula kwi-Suez Canal yonke imihla, kwaye usuku olunye lokuvalwa luthetha ukuba izitya ze-55,000 zilibaziseke ekuhanjisweni.Ngokwezibalo ezivela kuLuhlu lukaLloyd, iindleko zeyure zokuvalwa kweSuez Canal zimalunga nama-400 ezigidi zeedola zaseMelika.Isigebenga se-inshurensi saseJamani i-Allianz Group siqikelela ukuba ukuvaleka kweSuez Canal kunokubiza urhwebo lwehlabathi phakathi kwe-US$6 yeebhiliyoni kunye ne-10 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngeveki.

Ingcali ye-JPMorgan Chase uMarko Kolanovic ubhale kwingxelo ngoLwesine: “Nangona sikholelwa kwaye sinethemba lokuba imeko iza kusonjululwa kungekudala, kusekho umngcipheko.Kwiimeko ezigqithisileyo, umjelo uya kuvalwa ixesha elide.Oku kunokukhokelela kuphazamiseko olumandla kurhwebo lwehlabathi, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okuthunyelwa kweenqanawa, ukunyuka okuthe kratya kwempahla yamandla, nokunyuka kwamaxabiso ehlabathini lonke.”Ngexesha elifanayo, ukulibaziseka kokuthunyelwa kwenqanawa kuya kuvelisa inani elikhulu lamabango e-inshurensi, okuya kubeka uxinzelelo kumaziko emali abandakanyeka kwi-inshurensi yaselwandle, okanye kuya kubangela i-Reinsurance kunye nezinye iindawo eziphazamisayo.

Ngenxa yenqanaba eliphezulu lokuxhomekeka kwijelo lokuthumela iSuez Canal, imakethi yaseYurophu ikuva ngokucacileyo ukuphazamiseka okubangelwa lulungiselelo oluvaliweyo, kwaye amashishini okuthengisa kunye nemveliso aya kuba "akukho rayisi embizeni."Ngokwengxelo ye-Xinhua News Agency yaseChina, umthengisi omkhulu wefenitshala yasekhaya, i-IKEA yaseSweden, iqinisekise ukuba malunga ne-110 yeekhonteyina zale nkampani ezithwelwe “kwiChangci”.Umthengisi wombane waseBrithani i-Dixons Mobile Inkampani kunye nomthengisi wempahla yasekhaya yaseDatshi i-Brocker Inkampani nayo yaqinisekisa ukuba ukuhanjiswa kwempahla kulibaziseke ngenxa yokuvaleka komjelo.

Kukwanjalo nakwimveliso.I-arhente yamazwe ngamazwe yokulinganisa i-Moody's yahlalutya ukuba ngenxa yoshishino lwemveliso yaseYurophu, ngakumbi ababoneleli bezixhobo zemoto, bebeqhuba "ulawulo loluhlu lwempahla ngexesha elifanelekileyo" ukwandisa impumelelo yenkunzi kwaye ayizukugcina isixa esikhulu semathiriyeli ekrwada.Kule meko, xa ulungiselelo luvaliwe, imveliso inokuphazamiseka.

Ukuvaleka kukwaphazamisa ukuhamba kweLNG yehlabathi.I-US “Market Watch” yathi ixabiso lerhasi yendalo enyibilikisiweyo linyuke ngokuphakathi ngenxa yokuxinana.I-8% yerhasi yendalo enyibilikisiweyo yehlabathi ithuthwa ngeSuez Canal.I-Qatar, umboneleli omkhulu werhasi yendalo enyibilikileyo kwihlabathi, inemveliso yerhasi yendalo ethunyelwa eYurophu ngomjelo.Ukuba ukuhamba kuhamba kulibaziseka, malunga nesigidi esi-1 seetoni zegesi yendalo engamanzi inokulibaziseka ukuya eYurophu.

Ukongezelela, abanye abathathi-nxaxheba beemarike banenkxalabo yokuba amaxabiso e-oyile ekrwada kumazwe ngamazwe kunye nezinye iimveliso ziya kunyuka ngenxa yokuvalwa kweSuez Canal.Kwiintsuku zamva nje, amaxabiso eoli kumazwe ngamazwe anyuke kakhulu.Amaxabiso e-oyile ekrwada ekhaphukhaphu yekamva aziswa ngoMeyi kwiNew York Mercantile Exchange kunye neLondon Brent crude oil future eziziswe ngoMeyi omabini adlule kwi $60 ngomphanda.Nangona kunjalo, abangaphakathi kwimizi-mveliso bathi intengiso inexhala lokuba imvakalelo yekhonkco lokubonelela iye yaqina, nto leyo ebangele ukuba amaxabiso eoyile anyuke.Nangona kunjalo, ukuphendula kumjikelo omtsha wobhubhane, ukuqiniswa kwamanyathelo othintelo kunye nolawulo kusaza kunqanda imfuno ye-oyile ekrwada.Ukongezelela, imijelo yezothutho yamazwe avelisa ioli njengeUnited States ayizange ichaphazeleke.Ngenxa yoko, isithuba sokunyuka kwamaxabiso e-oyile kumazwe ngamazwe silinganiselwe.

2. Yandisa ingxaki "yesikhongozeli kunzima ukusifumana"

Ukususela kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka ophelileyo, imfuno yokuthumela ngenqanawa yehlabathi inyuke ngokukhawuleza, kwaye amaninzi amachweba ahlangabezane neengxaki ezinjengobunzima bokufumana isitya kunye namazinga aphezulu okuthutha olwandle.Abathathi-nxaxheba beMakethi bakholelwa ukuba ukuba ukuvalelwa kweSuez Canal kuyaqhubeka, inani elikhulu leenqanawa zempahla aziyi kukwazi ukujika, okuya kwandisa iindleko zorhwebo lwehlabathi kwaye kubangele ukusabela kwekhonkco.

Ngokweenkcukacha ezikhutshwe yi-General Administration of Customs of China kwiintsuku ezimbalwa ezidlulileyo, ukuthunyelwa kwe-China kwiinyanga ezimbini zokuqala zalo nyaka kuphinde kwanda kakhulu ngaphezu kwe-50%.Njengeyona ndlela ibalulekileyo yothutho kulungiselelo lwamazwe ngamazwe, ngaphezu kwe-90% yothutho lokungenisa nokuthumela ngaphandle kwempahla lugqitywe ngolwandle.Ngoko ke, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kuphumelele "isiqalo esihle", oku kuthetha imfuno enkulu yomthamo wokuthumela.

Ngokutsho kwe-Arhente yeSatellite ye-Satellite yaseRashiya isanda kucaphula i-Bloomberg News, ixabiso le-container ye-40-foot ukusuka e-China ukuya eYurophu liye lanyuka laya kutsho kwi-8,000 yeedola zase-US (malunga ne-RMB 52,328) ngenxa yomkhumbi okhutshiweyo, ophantse waphindwe kathathu ngaphezu kunyaka ophelileyo.

Ulwakhiwo lweSampmax luqikelela ukuba ukonyuswa kwangoku kumaxabiso eemveliso yiSuez Canal ikakhulu kungenxa yolindelo lweemarike zokunyuka kweendleko zothutho kunye nolindelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso.Ukuvaleka koMjelo weSuez kuya kuwenza mandundu ngakumbi uxinzelelo lonikezelo lwezikhongozeli.Ngenxa yokunyuka kwemfuno yehlabathi yeenqanawa zemithwalo ezithwele izikhongozeli, nabathwali abaninzi sele beqalisile ukusilela kwimfuno.Ngoncedo lwehlabathi lonke olujongene nokujongana neebhotile, oku kunokuchazwa “njengokongeza amafutha emlilweni.”Ukongeza kwizikhongozeli ezithwele inani elikhulu leempahla zabathengi "zixinge" kwiSuez Canal, izitya ezininzi ezingenanto zazivaliwe apho.Xa isixokelelwano sonikezelo lwehlabathi sifuna ukuchacha ngokungxamisekileyo, inani elikhulu leebhokisi ziye zagcinwa kumazibuko aseYurophu naseMelika, nto leyo enokwenza kube mandundu ukunqongophala kwezikhongozeli kwaye kwangaxeshanye izise imingeni enkulu kumthamo wokuthumela.

3. Iingcebiso zethu

Okwangoku, indlela yeSampmax Construction ukujongana necala elinzima ukufumana ukucebisa abathengi ukuba bathenge i-stock ngaphezulu, kwaye bakhethe i-40-foot NOR okanye i-bulk cargo transport, enokunciphisa kakhulu iindleko, kodwa le ndlela ifuna abathengi ukuba bathenge ngaphezulu.