ISIVIVINYO! "Ukuchitheka" ku-International Trade Kungagadla
No.1┃ Crazy Crazy Raw Amanani Ebonakalayo
Kusukela ngo-2021, izimpahla 'zivukile'. Ekota yokuqala, ingqikithi yezimpahla eziyi-189 zavuka futhi zawela ohlwini lwamanani entengo yezimpahla. Phakathi kwazo, izimpahla ezingama-78 zanda zingaphezulu kwama-20%, izinto eziyi-11 zanda ngaphezu kwama-50%, kanye nezimpahla ezi-2 zanda, amakhemikhali, ama-plastics kanye nemikhiqizo yezolimo nezinye izinkambu.
Ukunyuka kwamanani entengo yezimpahla kunciphise ngqo intengo yokuthenga yezinto zokwakha umkhiqizo. NgoMashi, inkomba yentengo yokuthenga yezinto ezinkulu ezingavuthiwe yasondela kuma-67%, ebikade iphakeme kune-60.0% yezinyanga ezine ezilandelanayo futhi ishaye phezulu kweminyaka emine. Umuthi wokwakha ubuye wabona ukwanda okungaba ngu-15% kuya ku-20%, okubonakala ekucindezelweni kwezindleko.
Ngokumelene ne-backrop yobhubhane olusha lomqhele, umnotho omkhulu womhlaba wonke usebenze izinqubomgomo ezinkulu zokunciphisa imali. Kusukela ekupheleni kukaFebhuwari 2021, ukunikezwa imali okubanzi kwamabhange amakhulu amakhulu e-United States, eYurophu naseJapan kwadlula ama- $ 47 trillion. Kulonyaka, i-United States yethule iphakethe lokuvuselela ama-US $ 1.9 trillion kanye necebo elikhulu lengqalasizinda elingaphezu kwama-US $ 1 trillion. Kusukela ngoMashi 1, inani le-M2 e-United States lafika e-US $ 19.7 trillion, ukwanda konyaka ngo-27%. Umjovo oqhubekayo wokukhubazeka emakethe udlulela ngqo amanani entengo yezimpahla ngobuningi, futhi ubhubhane lunciphise ukukhiqizwa komhlaba wonke, kanti ezinye izinto zitholakale ezimfishane, ezinentengo ekhuphukayo.
Umdwebo 1: I-M2 Ukuhlinzekelwa Kwemali Kwamabhange Amathathu Emaphakathi Emhlabeni
Umdwebo 2: US M2 Ukunikezwa Kwemali
No.2┃Constronctsctions Isidingo noma Ukwehla Okuphezulu
Lapho ebhekene nezintengo ezibonakalayo ezikhuphukayo, ukwakhiwa kwaSampmax kwadingeka ukuthi kwandise amanani entengo "emakethe". Kepha ukuzwela okwedlulele kwabathengi baphesheya kwezilwandle ukukhuphuka kwamanani kubeka izinkampani enkingeni. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ngeke kube khona imishado yenzuzo uma kungekho ukwenyuswa kwentengo. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, bakhathazekile ngokulahleka kwama-oda ngemuva kokunyuka kwamanani.
Ngokombono we-macro, inqubomgomo yezezimali eyeqile kunzima ukukhuthaza isidingo esisha, kepha kungahle kuholele ekukhuphukeni nasekutholeni isikweletu ngokweqile. Umdlalo we-International Trade Stock ubekelwe ukululama kancane kancane kwamandla okukhiqiza aphesheya kwezilwandle, futhi umphumela wokufaka esikhundleni sehliswa, okwenza kube nzima ukufunwa phesheya kwezilwandle ukuze kugcinwe amazinga aphezulu.
Cha.3┃the izinkathazo ezifihliwe "zokuchitheka" ekuhwebeni kwamanye amazwe
I-StagFlation ivame ukusetshenziselwa ukuchaza ukuhlangana kokuthuthukiswa komnotho okuqinile kanye nokwenyuka kwamanani. Ukuqhathanisa lokhu kokuhweba kwamanye amazwe, izinkampani zezentengiselwano zakwamanye amazwe ziphoqelelwa ukuthi "zibandakanye" ngokunqikaza lapho intengo yezinto zokwakha kanye nezinye izindleko zivukile kakhulu, kanti isidingo sangaphandle asikhuphuki kakhulu noma senqabile kakhulu.
Ubhubhane lwekhulu leminyaka ludale igebe elandayo phakathi kwabacebile nabampofu emhlabeni wonke, inani lamakilasi aphansi avukile, ubukhulu besigaba esiphakathi buwile, futhi umkhuba wokuncipha kwesidingo uwile. Lokhu kulethe izinguquko ekwakhiweni kwemakethe yokuthumela ngaphandle, okungukuthi, imakethe yaphakathi nendawo iwile futhi imakethe ephansi ikhuphukile.
Ukuphikisana phakathi kokuvunyelwa kwamandla emali aseceleni kwemali nokufunwa kwe-deflation ecindezelwe ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe. Ngokwehliswa kokusetshenziswa kwangaphandle, imakethe yokugcina iyazwela kakhulu ngamanani athumela ngaphandle. Izindleko ezikhuphuke kakhulu zokuthumela ngaphandle kwezimboni eziningi kunzima ukudlulisela kubathengi bakwamanye amazwe nabathengi ngokukhulisa amanani entengo yokuthumela ngaphandle.
Ngamanye amagama, ivolumu yezohwebo jikelele isanda kunyuka, kepha izibalo ezikhulayo azizange zilethe inzuzo eningi kumabhizinisi ethu, futhi akwazanga ukwakha isidingo esiqhubekayo se-terminal. "Ukuchitheka" kuthula ngokuthula.
Izinselelo Nezinselele Nezimpendulo Zokuhweba Izinqumo Zokuhweba
I-Stefflation ayilethi nje ukuncishiswa kwenzuzo kuphela, kepha futhi nezinselelo nezinselelo ezinqumweni zokuhweba.
Ukuze ukhiye ngamanani, abathengi baphesheya kwezilwandle abaningi bavame ukusayina izivumelwano zesikhathi eside nathi noma babeke ama-oda amaningi nama-oda amakhulu ngasikhathi sinye. Lapho ebhekene "nezambane elishisayo", ukwakhiwa kweSampmax kuyinkinga futhi: Kukhathazekile ngokulahleka kwamathuba webhizinisi, futhi kuyesaba ukuthi intengo yezinto zokwenziwa kabusha izoqhubeka nokuthola noma ukunciphisa imali, ikakhulukazi kumakhasimende ama-oda amancane. Izinto zokusetshenziswa zeqembu lethu ziphezulu. Amandla okuxoxisana akhawulelwe.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngokususelwa kumanani wamanje ngokuvamile ngokuvamile ezingeni eliphakeme, ukwakhiwa kweSampmax ukulungele ukubhekana nokuguquguquka kwentengo. Ikakhulu emakethe ngokushintshashintsha kwentengo enobudlova, sizolawula ngokuqinile izimo zokuqoqa. Ngasikhathi sinye, kunconywa ukuthi amakhasimende abe nezidingo ze-oda ukwenza izinqumo ezisheshayo.
Ngenxa yokuthi amakhasimende kaSampmax ahlole ukusungulwa kwe-Inventory kanye nokuthengisa ngesikhathi esifanele ngesikhathi esikhethekile, kunconywa ukuthi abathengi bethu balandele kakhulu esimweni sokukhokha, bathobele ngokucophelela ibhizinisi elikhulu nezesikhathi eside, futhi baluphephe kakhulu kubathengi abakhulu, ubungozi obuningi. Sizophinde sixoxe nawe ngecebo lokubambisana isikhathi eside.