Ngomhla zingama-23 kuNdasa, umkhumbi omkhulu wamabhokisi i-“Changci” osetshenziswa yi-Taiwan Evergreen Shipping, ngenkathi udlula eSuez Canal, kwasolwa ukuthi uchezukile esiteshini futhi washayisa ngenxa yomoya onamandla.Ngo-4:30 ekuseni ngomhla ka-29, ngesikhathi sendawo, ngemizamo yethimba labatakuli, umkhumbi othwala impahla othi “Long Give” owawuvimbe iSuez Canal usuphinde wavela, futhi injini manje isiyasebenza!Kubikwa ukuthi umkhumbi “Changci” uqondiswe.Imithombo emibili yezokuthutha ithe umkhumbi uqalise kabusha “umzila wayo ojwayelekile.”Kubikwa ukuthi ithimba lokuhlenga liye lahlenga ngempumelelo i-"Long Give" e-Suez Canal, kodwa isikhathi sokuthi i-Suez Canal iqale kabusha ukuzulazula asikaziwa.

Njengesinye seziteshi zemikhumbi ezibaluleke kakhulu emhlabeni, ukuvinjwa kweSuez Canal kwengeze izinkathazo ezintsha emkhunjini osevele uqinile womhlaba wonke.Akekho owayengacabanga ukuthi ukuhweba komhlaba wonke ezinsukwini zamuva kumisiwe emfuleni ongamamitha angu-200 ububanzi?Ngokushesha nje lapho lokhu kwenzeka, kwakudingeka siphinde sicabange ngezindaba zokuphepha kanye nezindaba ezingavinjelwe zesiteshi samanje se-Sino-European sokuhweba ukuze sinikeze "isipele" sokuthutha i-Suez Canal.

1. Isigameko “sokuminyana komkhumbi,” “amaphiko ovemvane” sanyakazisa umnotho womhlaba

ULars Jensen, oyi-CEO yenkampani ebonisana neDanish “Maritime Intelligence”, uthe cishe imikhumbi ethwala impahla esindayo engu-30 idlula eSuez Canal nsuku zonke, kanti usuku olulodwa lokuvaleka kusho ukuthi iziqukathi ezingu-55,000 zibambezelekile ukulethwa.Ngokwezibalo ezivela ku-Lloyd's List, izindleko zehora zokuvinjwa kweSuez Canal zilinganiselwa ezigidini ezingu-US$400.Isikhondlakhondla senkampani yomshwalense yaseJalimane i-Allianz Group ilinganisela ukuthi ukuvinjwa kweSuez Canal kungase kubize ukuhwebelana komhlaba wonke phakathi kuka-US$6 billion no-US$10 billion ngesonto.

Usomaqhinga weJPMorgan Chase uMarko Kolanovic ubhale embikweni wangoLwesine: “Nakuba sikholwa futhi sithemba ukuthi isimo sizoxazululeka maduze, zisekhona izingozi.Ezimweni ezimbi kakhulu, umsele uzovinjwa isikhathi eside.Lokhu kungase kubangele ukuphazamiseka okukhulu kwezohwebo emhlabeni wonke, ukukhuphuka kwamanani emikhumbi, ukwanda okwengeziwe kwempahla yamandla, kanye nokwenyuka kwamandla emali emhlabeni wonke.”Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukubambezeleka kokuthunyelwa kwemikhumbi kuzophinde kudale inombolo enkulu yezimangalo zomshwalense, okuzofaka ingcindezi ezikhungweni zezezimali ezibandakanya umshwalense wasolwandle, noma kuzodala i-Reinsurance kanye neminye imikhakha ibe nesiyaluyalu.

Ngenxa yezinga eliphezulu lokuthembela esiteshini sokuthumela iSuez Canal, imakethe yaseYurophu ikuzwile ngokusobala ukuphazamiseka okubangelwa ukuhlelwa kwempahla evinjiwe, futhi izimboni ezithengisayo nezokukhiqiza ngeke “zibe nelayisi ebhodweni.”Ngokwe-Xinhua News Agency yaseChina, isitolo esikhulu kunazo zonke emhlabeni esidayisa impahla yasendlini, i-IKEA yaseSweden, ikuqinisekisile ukuthi alinganiselwa ku-110 amakhonteyina ale nkampani athwelwe “eChangci”.Umdayisi kagesi waseBrithani i-Dixons Mobile Company kanye nomthengisi wefenisha yasekhaya wase-Dutch i-Brocker Company baphinde baqinisekisa ukuthi ukulethwa kwezimpahla kubambezelekile ngenxa yokuvaleka komsele.

Okufanayo kuya ekukhiqizeni.I-ejensi yokulinganisa yamazwe ngamazwe i-Moody's ihlaziye ukuthi ngenxa yokuthi imboni yokukhiqiza yase-Europe, ikakhulukazi abahlinzeki bezingxenye zezimoto, ibiphishekela “ukuphathwa kwempahla okufika ngesikhathi” ukuze kwandiswe ukusebenza kahle kwezimali futhi ngeke igcine inani elikhulu lempahla yokusetshenziswa.Kulokhu, uma izinto sezivinjiwe, ukukhiqiza kungase kuphazamiseke.

Ukuvinjwa kuphazamisa nokugeleza komhlaba wonke kwe-LNG.I-US "Market Watch" ithe intengo yegesi yemvelo ewuketshezi ikhuphuke ngokulingene ngenxa yokuminyana.I-8% yegesi yemvelo ewuketshezi emhlabeni ithuthwa ngeSuez Canal.I-Qatar, inkampani enkulu kunazo zonke emhlabeni ehlinzeka ngegesi yemvelo ewuketshezi, inemikhiqizo yegesi yemvelo ethuthwa e-Europe ngokusebenzisa umsele.Uma ukuzulazula kubambezelekile, cishe amathani ayisigidi esingu-1 wegesi yemvelo ewuketshezi ingase ibambezeleke ukuya e-Europe.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, abanye ababambiqhaza bemakethe bakhathazekile ngokuthi amanani kawoyela ongahluziwe wamazwe ngamazwe kanye nezinye izinto zizokwenyuka ngenxa yokuvinjwa kweSuez Canal.Ezinsukwini zakamuva, amanani kawoyela emhlabeni wonke akhuphuke kakhulu.Amanani entengo kawoyela ongahluziwe wekusasa alethwe ngoMeyi ku-New York Mercantile Exchange kanye nekusasa likawoyela ongahluziwe waseLondon Brent elethwa ngoMeyi womabili adlule ku-$60 umphongolo ngamunye.Kodwa-ke, abangaphakathi embonini bathi imakethe ikhathazekile ngokuthi imizwa ye-supply chain ishubile, okudale ukuthi amanani kawoyela anyuke.Nokho, ekuphenduleni umzuliswano omusha walolu bhubhane, ukuqinisa izindlela zokuvimbela nokulawula kusazonciphisa isidingo sikawoyela ongahluziwe.Ngaphezu kwalokho, imigudu yokuthutha yamazwe akhiqiza uwoyela njenge-United States ayizange ithinteke.Ngenxa yalokhu, ukukhuphuka kwamanani entengo kawoyela emhlabeni wonke kulinganiselwe.

2. Yandisa inkinga yokuthi "isitsha sitholakala kanzima"

Kusukela engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka odlule, isidingo semikhumbi emhlabeni wonke sikhule kakhulu, futhi amachweba amaningi ahlangabezane nezinkinga ezinjengobunzima bokuthola ibhokisi kanye namazinga aphezulu olwandle okuthutha.Abahlanganyeli beMakethe bakholelwa ukuthi uma ukuvinjelwa kwe-Suez Canal kuqhubeka, inqwaba yemikhumbi yezimpahla ngeke ikwazi ukuphenduka, okuzokwandisa izindleko zokuhweba emhlabeni wonke futhi kubangele ukusabela kweketanga.

Ngokwemininingwane ekhishwe yiGeneral Administration of Customs of China ezinsukwini ezimbalwa ezedlule, ukuthunyelwa kweChina emazweni angaphandle ezinyangeni ezimbili zokuqala zalo nyaka kuphinde kwanda kakhulu ngaphezu kwama-50%.Njengendlela yokuthutha ebaluleke kakhulu ekuthuthweni kwamazwe ngamazwe, ngaphezu kwama-90% okuthunyelwa kwezimpahla nokuthumela ngaphandle kuqedwa olwandle.Ngakho-ke, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kuye kwazuza "isiqalo esihle", okusho isidingo esikhulu somthamo wokuthutha.

Ngokusho kwe-Russian Satellite News Agency esanda kucaphuna i-Bloomberg News, intengo yesiqukathi esingamamitha angu-40 sisuka e-China siye e-Europe sikhuphuke safinyelela cishe ku-8,000 zamadola aseMelika (cishe ama-RMB 52,328) ngenxa yomkhumbi obambekile, ocishe uphindwe kathathu kune- ngonyaka odlule.

I-Sampmax Construction ibikezela ukuthi ukukhuphuka kwamanje kwezintengo zempahla yiSuez Canal kudalwe ikakhulukazi ukulindelwe yimakethe kokukhuphuka kwezindleko zokuhamba kanye nokulindela ukwehla kwamandla emali.Ukuvinjwa kwe-Suez Canal kuzoqhubeza kubhebhethekise umfutho oqinile wokunikezwa kweziqukathi.Ngenxa yokwanda kwesidingo somhlaba wonke semikhumbi ethwala impahla ethwala iziqukathi, ngisho nezinkampani ezithwala impahla eziyinqwaba seziqalile ukushoda ngesidingo.Njengoba ukutholakala kwe-global supply chain kubhekene nezingqinamba, lokhu kungachazwa “njengokwengeza uphethiloli emlilweni.”Ngaphezu kweziqukathi ezithwele inani elikhulu lezimpahla zabathengi “ezibhajwe” eSuez Canal, iziqukathi eziningi ezingenalutho nazo zavinjwa lapho.Lapho uchungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla emhlabeni wonke lunesidingo esiphuthumayo sokubuyiselwa, inani elikhulu leziqukathi libekwe eshalofini emachwebeni aseYurophu nawaseMelika, okungase kubhebhethekise ukushoda kweziqukathi futhi ngesikhathi esifanayo kulethe izinselele ezinkulu kumthamo wokuthutha.

3. Izincomo zethu

Njengamanje, indlela ye-Sampmax Construction yokubhekana necala okunzima ukulithola iwukuncoma amakhasimende ukuthi abeke isitoko esiningi, futhi akhethe ukuthutha kwezimpahla ezingamamitha angu-40 NOR noma ngobuningi, okunganciphisa kakhulu izindleko, kodwa le ndlela idinga amakhasimende ukuthi abeke isitoko esiningi.